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The Touts Roundup: Projecting NBA DFS Ownership for Wednesday, November 1

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We have a huge 12 game slate tonight for NBA in DFS. With this many games, it is extremely important to understand ownership percentages. We have scoured the popular daily fantasy strategy sites in order to evaluate who has been touted most frequently. This is a key input into better estimating ownership for tonight’s slate. We will also be looking at some players who have not been so highly touted but still stand out in our GPP-adjusted projections, so you can take advantage of lower ownership with high upside.

Highly Touted Players:

The most popular player on tonight’s slate according to daily fantasy sites is LeBron James. Due to his inconsistent performances, LeBron’s salary has dipped down compared to his previous two games.  There seems to be a consensus in the community that now is the time to buy low.  The Cavaliers are at home tonight against the Pacers and the matchup looks unbelievable for James. LeBron will be guarded by Thaddeus Young or Bojan Bogdanovic and neither one will be able to keep up. With a lower salary and an unstoppable matchup, look for James to be one of the highest owned players on tonight’s slate.  Part of this is simply due to the dynamics of lineup construction and positional scarcity.  Lebron stands alone in value among SF studs on DK.  While our models have John Wall projected as a better overall play than Lebron, his ownership may not be as high as Lebron’s simply because there is more opportunity cost at the PG position with guys like Dennis Schroder and Jarret Jack serving as elite sources of potential salary relief.

It’s no surprise that Anthony Davis is one of the most highly touted players tonight. After missing a game due to injury, he has come back strong with back-to-back 61 fantasy point performances.  Many in the community will certainly be looking to chase these points.  Davis ranks second on his team to DeMarcus Cousins with a 29.7% usage rate. Tonight the Pelicans will be hosting the Timberwolves who have struggled on defense so far this year. With Karl-Anthony Towns guarding Cousins, Davis will have his way against the much shorter Taj Gibson which proves why his ownership will be high tonight.

With an usage rate of 34.4 percent, James Harden ranks third overall in the NBA trailing only Kristaps Porzingis and Joel Embiid. The Rockets are favored on the road by 5½ tonight to the Knicks with an over/under of 213½. Harden will be fully involved in the offense again tonight and is always a triple-double threat.  Last Friday he posted 27 points, 11 assist and 10 rebounds against the Hornets. It is definitely easy to see why Harden is one of the most highly touted players this evening.

Under Touted Players:

Based on our projections, Joel Embiid immediately stands out tonight as an elite value, especially so in GPP contests.  With an ownership projection just below 10%, Embiid becomes a great pivot off of Davis. Embiid has the second highest usage percentage at 35% and is coming off a great game where he was one rebound away from a double-double. The 76ers are at home tonight and face a Hawks team that ranks 12th worst in the league against opposing centers. On DraftKings, Embiid’s price has dropped to the lowest it’s been since the first game of the season. All of this adds up for Embiid to make a huge impact on tonight’s slate.

With the majority of the daily fantasy sites focused on LeBron, we like his teammate Kevin Love tonight. The Pacers will also be forced into trying to limit LeBron which should leave Love with plenty of opportunities. We rate Love as a high-value GPP play with an ownership percentage of around eight. Love actually owns the highest usage rate on the Cavaliers so far this season and is coming off back-to-back 40+ fantasy performances. Love is in a great spot to help take down a GPP since he is under touted in the shadow of LeBron.

In a similar situation, Bradley Beal is really popping in our projections for this slate. First off, the Wizards take on the Suns tonight and both teams play at a very high pace which explains why Vegas is projecting an over/under of 228½. Beal draws a terrific matchup tonight as the Suns are the 27th worst team in the league against opposing shooting guards. Our projections point to John Wall as one of the highest owned players on the entire slate, so Beal makes for a nice pivot with around 7% ownership despite having a high ceiling in a high scoring game.

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