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The Correlation Station: An Early Look at NBA DFS Game Stacks for Tuesday, October 31

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3 Correlation Plays and Game Stacks to Look At for Tuesday Night’s Draftkings and Fanduel GPPs

It’s often claimed that stacking is irrelevant in NBA daily fantasy, and that strong correlations between positions and teammates don’t exist.  The data suggests otherwise.

In this space, we’ll highlight the strongest correlations to target in GPPs on tonight’s 4 game slate.

1. Lakers:  Lonzo Ball and Brook Lopez (+0.49 correlation)

Update:  Significant value has opened up at the C position throughout the day and Lopez is no longer viable.  Our Draftkings projections now peg him at just 25.5 DK points or 4.6 points/dollar.  Ball is still a reasonable play if mass multi-entering. 

The Lakers rookie PG has hooked up well with the big man so far this young season.  Granted, a sample size of 6 games isn’t going to give us too much confidence over how strongly this correlation holds up over the course of the season, but the combo makes sense.  An astronomical 69% of Lopez’s made field goals have been assisted vs. just 31% unassisted.  There should be plenty of opportunities tonight for Ball to dish the rock to Lopez around the rim.

Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

If Ball comes with depressed ownership after putting up just 25 and 20 DK points Friday and Saturday nights, they make for a nice little stack in GPPs.

Throw in another good value in Kyle Kuzma (0.10 correlation with Ball through 6 games) and a Piston or two if you want to stack this game up.

2. Thunder:  Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony (+0.53 correlation)

We have Westbrook projected as a solid play tonight in cash.  While the situation isn’t the best, on such a short slate it’s tough to find anyone with as much upside.  And while teammate Paul George is also going to be popular, they don’t make for the best of stacks as they have a -0.65 correlation thus far.  ‘Melo makes for a reasonable pivot if mass multi-entering.  We project him as a middling value, but given the limited options on this short slate, when combined with Westbrook the upside is there for GPPs.  The two don’t necessarily cannabilize each other’s scoring as some might think. They each scored 28 actual points a week ago in a game against the Pacers, while Westbrook dished out 16 assists.

Malcolm Brogdon makes for the best Milwaukee value if you want to go for an extremely contrarian mini game stack.

3. Pacers: Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovich (+0.16 correlation)

The p-value on this one is going to be very weak until these two have some more games under their belts together.  But given that, like Brook Lopez, Bojan boasts a near 70 FGM-Assisted % this year, there’s a good chance this positive correlation will hold in the coming months.  We have Collison projected as one of the top 3 PG plays tonight, while Bojan is one of the best sources of salary relief.

On the opposing side, George Hill is another elite PG value and the 3 of them make for a nice little game stack.

@projectiongeeks

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