Tonight, we have a juicy nine-game NBA slate for DFS. As always, there will be some very heavily touted plays which will translate into elevated ownership percentages. We’ve scoured the popular daily fantasy strategy sites across the web to identify which players have been touted most frequently and aggressively. Here, we‘ll summarize what we’ve discovered to help you better estimate ownership for tonight. We’ll also highlight some players who haven’t been touted nearly as much but are really popping in our GPP-adjusted projections because they carry big upside at a significant savings on ownership.
Highly Touted Players:
The Pelicans have a huge impact on every DFS slate they play since they have two of the very best big men in the league with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Despite Davis being injury prone, he has been absolutely crushing it when he’s been on the court. Davis could be the highest owned player today since he draws a great matchup with the Magic, who have been destroyed by opposing power forwards so far this season. The Magic also rank 3rd in pace which will offer a lot of possessions for the Pelicans offense that runs through their big men. We’re currently projecting Davis to carry 22% ownership on the Draftkings main slate.
Cousins, who leads the team with a 36.4 percent usage rate, will also be highly owned at around 18% on DK. But that slight ownership savings may not be enough to pivot too heavily off of Davis for GPPS, since right now Davis seems like a considerably better value (5.3 DK points per dollar projection vs. just 5.1 for Cousins).
Unless some value opens up with late-breaking news, James Harden will likely be the highest owned guard in tonight’s contests. He is coming off two solid games last week where he put up 62 DraftKings points against the Hornets and 56.75 against the 76ers. The Rockets will take on the 76ers once again tonight and Harden should have his way against a poor defense. Look for Harden to have an 15-20% ownership tonight.
The Clippers are taking on the Warriors tonight in what is projected to be a fast-paced game with an O/U of 221½, which is the second highest on tonight’s slate. The Warriors currently rank 23rd overall against opposing power forwards, which is great news for Blake Griffin. Griffin has been incredibly consistent this season and his previous four games back that up with fantasy scores of 40.25, 44, 44.25, and 49. With a favorable matchup and a projected high scoring, competitive game, look for Griffin to be a popular play tonight across the industry.
Under Touted Players:
The Timberwolves have already gone through some ups and downs this season with some really bad losses and some good wins. Now that Jimmy Butler is healthy the offense looks more in sync. Our first player to keep an eye on for tonight’s slate is Karl-Anthony Towns. With popular plays listed above in Davis, Cousins, and Griffin, Towns will be lower owned. The Timberwolves go up against the Heat tonight, who rank 13th overall to opposing centers. Vegas projects a close, high-scoring game between these two teams with an O/U of 215. Towns is coming off an incredible game against the Thunder where he put up 66.25 DraftKings points, so recency bias may take hold for some. With a slightly tougher matchup, Towns should be right around 10 percent owned tonight but offers an incredibly high ceiling.
We already mentioned how enticing the Clippers-Warriors game will be tonight when we discussed Griffin above. But a great lower owned pivot will be to target Griffin’s teammate, DeAndre Jordan. He carries a 5.25 Draftkings points per dollar median projection alongside an enormous 55 DK point ceiling projection. The Warriors are dead last in the league against opposing centers and Jordan could be under 10 percent owned, putting him in a great spot to roster tonight in tournaments.
Harrison Barnes is another great option tonight as we look for under touted plays. The Mavericks will square off against the Jazz who are the 7th worst team to defend opposing small forwards. Barnes has been efficient of lat. With a projected ownership of just 7 percent and a great matchup, Barnes is definitely in play tonight.
by Kyle Warner @projectiongeeks