This week we saw BasketballMonster rising up to 3rd overall, and Dailyfantasynerd rockin’ it in 2nd place on every single accuracy metric. Meanwhile, Fantasylabs slipped slightly but still held strong in 4th place. As in past seasons, these three sites are all continuing to produce great projections this year.
Let’s dive into the enclosed data.
Each night, 15-30 minutes before lineup lock, we grabbed the Draftkings point projections from eight of the top daily fantasy strategy sites. After the games are complete, we compare the projected fantasy points with each players’ actual fantasy points scored on DK.
Professional forecasters measure accuracy primarily in any one of three ways:
Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
Root-Mean-Square Deviation (RMSE)
Below are the rankings on each of the three metrics for last week’s NBA games.
Our ProjectionGeeks’ projections led the way with a 0.678 correlation coefficient. The models of Dailyfantasynerd, Monster, and Labs also showed very strong relationships between how highly they projected each player and how well those players actually performed that night.
Unlike Mean Absolute Error, which is probably the best measure of the average size or magnitude of the difference between projected and actual points, correlation is the best measure in assessing how well a particular site understands the overall shape of the player pool on a given slate, and how well different plays are likely to stack up relative to other plays.
Mean Absolute Error Rankings
Again, absolute error shows the gap between a players’ projected fantasy points and the actual number of fantasy points he scored that night.